Technology terms and business trends 2023 (according to The Economist)

В 2020 и 2021 годах мы прошли ускоренный курс эпидемиологии и вакцинологии. Новые выражения, такие как “сглаживание кривой”, “вирусная нагрузка”, “спайковый белок” и “МНРК”, стали частью общественного дискурса. Затем, в 2022 году, нам пришлось узнать новые термины, такие как «МПВО»,  «контрбатарейный огонь» и “рубеж обороны”. Слова отражают основные тенденции в социальной жизни, экономике и бизнесе. Журнал The Economist предпринял попытку заглянуть таким образом  2023 год.

Green, blue and black hydrogen

Hydrogen is a colorless gas that burns completely, producing only water vapor. Despite being the most abundant element in the universe, it is rarely found on Earth in its pure form.

When producing pure hydrogen, some methods are much dirtier than others, so energy experts use different colors to identify them.

Green hydrogen is produced by using renewable energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen through electrolysis. Europe is promoting its use, and regions from Australia to India, rich in renewable energy, are hoping to become exporters of green hydrogen.

In contrast, to produce “black” or “brown” hydrogen, it is necessary to burn coal or lignite, releasing huge amounts of carbon dioxide. It's cheap, but bad for the climate.

Gray hydrogen is produced from natural gas in a process that also produces carbon dioxide (but less than coal).

Blue hydrogen is also produced from natural gas, but the resulting carbon dioxide is then captured and stored underground. Big oil companies are excited about this because, in theory, they could be relatively "green" if leaks were carefully monitored and controlled.

Turquoise hydrogen uses a different process to separate natural gas, resulting in hydrogen and solid carbon. Several startups are using this approach.

Pink hydrogen, like green hydrogen, is produced through electrolysis but is powered by nuclear energy.

Finally, “white” hydrogen is pure hydrogen that occurs naturally but is rarely found on Earth.

eSIM

SIM cards that are inserted into a smartphone and link it to the user's payment details and phone number, known as subscriber identity modules, are becoming a thing of the past. So-called e-SIM card technology replaces physical chips with a digital code that can be transferred from an old phone to a new one. The technology has been used in phones since 2017, but Apple's decision to release the iPhone 14 line in America as e-SIM-only phones will see millions of people start using it in 2023.

Post-quantum cryptography

Quantum computers harness the weirdness of the subatomic world to do things that conventional computers cannot do. This includes breaking codes: a working quantum computer, if it can be built, could break the encryption currently used to secure communications and protect sensitive data. To guard against this possibility, new “post-quantum” cryptography standards, designed to be invulnerable even to quantum computers, were approved in 2022, and preparations for their implementation will begin in earnest in 2023.

Mixed reality

Virtual reality (VR) is like a digital blindfold. It hides the real world and immerses you in an alternate reality created by a computer. Augmented reality (AR), on the other hand, superimposes computer-generated elements onto your view of the real world. Mixed reality (XR or MR) goes even further, allowing real and virtual objects to interact. For example, you can play table tennis, where the rackets are real and the ball is computer generated. It's also a less awkward term than augmented reality, and is more likely to stick. The big question for 2023 is what Apple will decide to name the technology when it announces its first AR/VR/XR headset, which is rumored to run software called "realityOS."

Access keys

The end of the password era! Passkeys are a new technology supported by major technology companies, including Apple, Google and Microsoft. It replaces passwords with biometrically verified tokens that are automatically generated and cannot be guessed or forgotten. Essentially, instead of entering a password, you use a token stored on your phone or computer, protected by your fingerprint or facial recognition, to log into apps or websites. Many online services are already using this approach, and more will follow in 2023 as support for this technology is extended to the latest versions of popular desktop and mobile operating systems.

Because a unique passkey is generated for each app or website you use, passkeys prevent many common attacks, such as "phishing" emails that trick users into entering their credentials on a believable-looking but fake website . Passkeys also, by default, prevent people from using the same (often easy to guess) password for everything. All of this should greatly improve online security, while also adding to the fact that logging in by clicking on your smartwatch is oddly immersive.

Regasification

Natural gas is usually delivered through pipelines because, unlike oil, it is difficult to load and unload onto ships. This makes natural gas markets much less liquid than oil markets because a pipeline is usually required between buyer and seller. But liquefied natural gas (LNG) is changing that. Cooling natural gas to -162°C turns it into a liquid and reduces its volume by 600 times, allowing it to be transported over long distances using special cryogenically cooled tanker ships.

Converting LNG back into gas so it can be piped and used as fuel is called regasification. This typically occurs at an onshore LNG terminal. But building onshore facilities takes time, so a quicker solution is to charter vessels called “floating storage and regasification units.”

Aridification

At what point does the word “drought” or even “megadrought” become insufficient to describe a dry period? Today the term aridification is often used instead of drought. Higher temperatures caused by climate change have many side effects. In already arid regions such as southern Europe, coastal Australia and southern Africa, climate change is reducing mountain snow cover and drying out rivers, soils and forests. California, Spain and elsewhere face the threat of increasingly severe wildfires during the summer. In 2023, these regions will face higher temperatures, more intense wildfires and less water. Drought will force agricultural centers such as California and China to reckon with dwindling water supplies. And scorched cities will worry that this could limit population growth.

Volume of CO2 emissions of categories 1, 2 and 3

Scope 1 emissions are emissions directly caused by business activities, such as the combustion of fuel in factories or vehicles.

Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions (such as from a power plant) resulting from a firm's energy use.

Scope 3 emissions are all other emissions resulting from the activities of industrial plants, their suppliers and customers. Should firms be held responsible for such emissions? In 2023, more regulators are expected to argue that they must do so.

Recovery centers and cool sidewalks

Cities around the world are taking a variety of measures to combat the threat of heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent and severe and put the elderly and frail at particular risk. Recovery centers are special buildings—or, in some cases, pods made from shipping containers—that provide shelters with air conditioning, potable water, Internet access and a means to charge phones. Cities also reduce temperatures by creating cool roofs (covered with white paint or reflective materials) and cool sidewalks (covered with special coatings) that reflect sunlight and absorb less heat. Pioneer cities for cool sidewalks and driveways include Los Angeles, Phoenix and Tokyo.

Synfuel and e-fuel

Synthetic fuels are a replacement for conventional hydrocarbon fuels (such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel). It is produced artificially, not from oil. e-fuel is a synthetic fuel produced using renewable energy sources. Solar or wind energy is used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen through electrolysis. The hydrogen is then mixed with carbon dioxide, either produced through industrial processes or extracted from the atmosphere, to produce hydrocarbon fuels. Depending on the process used, the resulting fuel may have a lower carbon footprint than conventional fuel or be completely carbon neutral. E-fuel doesn't make much sense for on-road vehicles (which can be easily electrified), but it can power ships and planes, essentially turning renewable electricity into liquid fuel.

Performance paranoia

Делает ли работа из дома вас более производительными?  В ходе опроса, проведенного Microsoft среди 20 000 сотрудников в 11 странах, 87 % считают, что они работают из дома так же или даже эффективнее, чем в офисе.  Но только 12% руководителей были полностью уверены в достаточной производительности своих команд. В результате возникает «паранойя производительности» как среди рабочих (боящихся прослыть прогульщиками), так и среди начальников (боящихся, что сотрудники прогуливают). Это, в свою очередь, может привести к «спектаклю производительности», посредством которого работники стремятся продемонстрировать, что они эффективно справляются со своими задачами.

Urban Rhythm VSiCh (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday)

В начале пандемии COVID-19 опасения, что люди никогда не вернутся в офисы, были неуместны. Но были и надежды на то, что рабочие привычки людей со временем вернутся к норме. Вместо этого многие привыкли ездить в офис только по вторникам, средам и четвергам. В 2023 году городам придется адаптироваться к «ВСиЧ».  По четвергам вечером бары бывают переполнены сотрудниками, отмечающими конец недели, и им барам адаптироваться к этому. Офисам придется проявить креативность, либо сокращая персонал, либо находя другие способы использования своих помещений в тихие дни. Операторам общественного транспорта тоже придется приспосабливаться. Вместо сокращения услуг по понедельникам и пятницам они могли бы попытаться изменить спрос, снизив цены в эти дни.

Donut effect

The rise in employees working from home caused by the pandemic means people value proximity to offices less and more at home space. Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University and Arjun Ramani, who is now a correspondent The Economist, proposed the term “donut effect” to describe the dynamics of large cities. As workers move out of urban centers, suburban housing rents soar, creating a ring of growth—an American donut with a hole in the middle. Commercial property developers hope people can be lured back to the city center by exceptional amenities such as beautiful offices and fantastic views - a British donut that is filled with jam instead of a hole in the middle.

Electric belt (Battery belt)

The Rust Belt is the name given to parts of America that have suffered from a decline in manufacturing since the 1950s. Efforts are underway to revitalize these regions by attracting investment in new green industries such as electric vehicle manufacturing and car battery “gigafactories.” Ford is investing $50 billion to expand its electric vehicle production, its rival GM is investing $35 billion, and about $40 billion is pouring into battery production in this new "Electric Belt." Will this name stick in 2023?

Virtual power plant

A growing number of homes and businesses have solar panels and batteries that can provide them with electricity and also feed into the grid when needed. When used together in large numbers and coordinated over the Internet, hundreds or thousands of these small generation and storage systems can act in concert, essentially functioning as a virtual power plant that can be turned on and off at any time. Users who authorize their equipment to be used in this manner receive payment for the energy supplied.

Виртуальные электростанции могут устранить необходимость в дорогостоящих, загрязняющих окружающую среду традиционных электростанциях. Они также могут помочь электроэнергетическим компаниям в управлении параметрами электросетей и балансировании спроса и предложения на энергию. Виртуальные электростанции являются примером того, как «умные сети» могут способствовать переходу на возобновляемые источники энергии. Они уже разворачиваются в Австралии, Великобритании, Калифорнии и Германии.

Vertiport

Air taxis, also known as flying cars or VTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft), are multi-rotor drones large enough to carry people. Several firms around the world hope that such vehicles will receive regulatory approval in 2023 as a fast and sustainable form of urban transport. But VTOL aircraft cannot take off and land anywhere. Instead, they will need specially designated areas - so-called vertiports. The latter are half airport, half metro station and allow the VTOL to be integrated with existing transport networks such as roads and rail. All this poses new challenges for architects and urbanists who are already developing original projects.

Space solar energy

The idea of capturing energy in space using huge solar panels attached to orbiting satellites and then transmitting it to Earth in the form of microwaves has been around since Isaac Asimov proposed it in a science fiction story in 1941. But this has always remained just a speculative idea due to the high cost of space launches. This will change if launch costs come down enough or if new space-based manufacturing technologies, such as asteroid mining, become available. And in a high enough orbit, a solar-powered satellite could be exposed to sunlight around the clock, providing a clean, reliable source of energy. The European Space Agency has sponsored a ground-based demonstration of the technology in Germany in 2022 under a proposed scheme called Solaris. America, Britain, China and Japan are also funding research in this field, which is seeing a new dawn.

Cislunar

The US intends to send astronauts to the moon in the next few years with the long-term goal of establishing a permanent base there. As part of its Artemis program, it plans to place a space station called the Lunar Gateway into orbit around the Moon. The station will act as a communications hub, scientific laboratory, and short-term living space; it should be launched in 2024. A series of preparatory robotic missions to the Moon will start in 2023. Cislunar or the space between the Earth and the Moon becomes an area of high scientific and business activity.