Hot business trends 2023: Metaverse - is it too early, just right or too late?

Метавселенная (Metaverse) — сегодня горячий термин. Возникает ощущение, что тем, кто не хочет отставать от прогресса уже сейчас пора инвестировать в эту область. Хотелось бы разобраться в этом вопросе — еще рано, уже в самый раз или уже поздно?

Metaverse is a term that describes a virtual space created by computer graphics and designed for users to interact with. This could be virtual reality, a social network, or a gaming world that allows people to interact with each other and their surroundings in a virtual space. The Metaverse can be used for a variety of purposes, including education, commerce, and entertainment.

FEATURES OF THE METAVERSE

The Metaverse offers a number of important features that are not possible on the traditional modern Internet and which offer promising prospects for new business development. These include:

Immersive Experience: The Metaverse is designed to provide an immersive and interactive experience. This includes the ability to navigate virtual worlds, interact with other users and the environment, and use virtual or augmented reality technologies.

Social interaction: The Metaverse allows for real-time communication in virtual worlds that can be more engaging and dynamic than traditional forms of online communication.

Virtual economy: в Метавселенной пользователи могут покупать, продавать и обменивать виртуальные товары и услуги. Метавселенная может применяться для развития бизнеса в разных областях — от игр до образования, работы и социального взаимодействия.

Identity: For the effective functioning of the Metaverse in the business field, an important element will be user identification, which will give users the ability to conduct business transactions, perform work, create avatars and have a permanent presence in various virtual worlds and applications, which is different from the anonymity possible on the modern Internet.

WHAT Hinders the development of the metauniverse?

So the Metaverse looks like a very promising venture. But, despite all the listed advantages, there are obstacles that do not yet allow this concept to be widely used in business. And there are quite a lot of them. I will list the main ones:

Technical limitations: developing a fully immersive and interactive Metaverse requires advances in areas such as virtual and augmented reality technologies, cloud computing and 5G networks, which may not yet be fully developed.

Compatibility: For the Metaverse to reach its full potential, different virtual worlds and applications must be able to seamlessly interact and exchange data, a complex problem that has yet to be fully resolved.

Scalability. The Metaverse will require significant computing power and bandwidth to support millions or billions of users simultaneously, which can be challenging.

Privacy and Security: Since the Metaverse will include sensitive user data, privacy and security issues need to be addressed. A key challenge will be ensuring user data is protected and users have control over their personal information.

Regulation: The Metaverse will need to be regulated to prevent illegal activities, protect user rights, and ensure fair competition. However, this is a complex issue, since the Metaverse will be global and cross-border, and it may be difficult to establish a single set of rules that apply to everyone.

Price: Development and maintenance of the Metaverse will require significant resources and investment, which can be a barrier for many companies and individuals.

Ease of use: The Metaverse must be accessible and easy to use for all users, including people with disabilities. This will require research and development to ensure the Metaverse is inclusive and user-friendly.

After such an enumeration, it seems that this concept is not only a distant future, but doubts arise as to whether it is even feasible, let alone the advisability of direct investment in this area. So why is this topic still being discussed?

The fact is that technologies that solve many of the listed problems are developing due to many other needs, and not just for the sake of implementing the concept of the Metaverse. It is enough to look at all the innovative areas to be convinced of this.

Virtual and augmented reality: These technologies will allow users to interact with the Metaverse in a fully immersive manner, allowing them to see, hear and touch virtual objects as if they were real.
5G networks: The Metaverse will require high-speed networks to support real-time interactions and large volumes of data.
Cloud computing: The Metaverse will need to run on a large-scale cloud infrastructure that will support the processing and storage of enormous amounts of data and will allow the Metaverse to scale to millions or billions of users.
Artificial intelligence: AI will play an important role in the Metaverse, including natural language processing, computer vision, and machine learning. It will be used to create more realistic and responsive virtual environments and improve user experience.
Blockchain: The use of blockchain technology will be critical to the Metaverse, it will be used to create a virtual economy, identify users and own digital assets, and provide security and transparency.
Compatibility: In order for different virtual worlds and applications to interact seamlessly, new standards and protocols will need to be developed to enable interoperability between different platforms and technologies.
Human-computer interaction: this technology needs to be developed to make the Metaverse more accessible and easier to use, including natural language processing, gesture recognition and eye tracking, which will improve the user experience.
Spatial information processing: this technology will be used to allow the Metaverse to be more aware of its surroundings, it will also allow the Metaverse to integrate with the real world and improve the user experience.

So many of the problems in the development of the Metaverse will be solved as these areas develop.

IS THE METAUNIVERSE THE SAME AS WEB 3.0?

The concept of Internet 3.0 is often mentioned next to the concept of the Metaverse. These are related concepts, but there are some key differences between them: the Metaverse refers to a large-scale immersive virtual world that will be accessed through virtual and augmented reality technologies, while Web 3.0 is the term used to describe the next generation of the Internet, which will more decentralized and focused on data, property and privacy.

The Metaverse is designed for the creation of specific projects such as games, education, work and social interaction, while Web 3.0 is focused on the development of decentralized applications and services running on top of the blockchain network.

The Metaverse will require seamless interaction between different virtual worlds and applications, while Web 3.0 aims to enable interoperability between different decentralized platforms and technologies.

The Metaverse will require advances in areas such as virtual and augmented reality, 5G networks and cloud computing, while Web 3.0 will require the development of blockchain and distributed ledger technologies, peer-to-peer networks and smart contract platforms.

The Metaverse is expected to have a significant impact on how we interact with each other and the world around us, and Web 3.0 is expected to enable the development of new business models and enable the decentralization of data and power.

Thus, the Metaverse is an immersive and interactive virtual world, and Web 3.0 is more of a next-generation Internet infrastructure focused on decentralization and data ownership. Both concepts have some similarities, but they also have different characteristics and goals.

MAIN PLAYERS

Who are the main drivers of the development of the Metaverse today? I think it's worth listing a few key companies that are working in areas that are critical to the development and implementation of the Metaverse.

Virtual and augmented reality. Oculus (Facebook), HTC Vive and Magic Leap are working to develop virtual and augmented reality technologies that will be used to access the Metaverse.

Cloud computing: Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud are working to build the large-scale cloud infrastructure that will be needed to support the Metaverse.

5G networks. Ericsson, Nokia, Huawei and Samsung are working to build 5G networks that will provide the high-speed, low-latency connections needed to support the Metaverse.

Artificial intelligence. Google, Amazon, Microsoft and IBM are working to create artificial intelligence that will be used to create more realistic and responsive virtual environments and improve user experience.

Blockchain: Ethereum, EOS, NEAR and Solana are working to create blockchain platforms that will be used to create a virtual economy, identify users and own digital assets in the Metaverse.

Compatibility: OpenAI, Paracosm and Spatial are working to develop standards and protocols that will allow different virtual worlds and applications to interact seamlessly.

Games: Unity, Epic Games and Crytek are working on developing game engines and tools that will be used to create the Metaverse.

Spatial information processing: Niantic and 6D.ai are working to develop spatial computing technology that will allow the Metaverse to become more aware of its surroundings and integrate with the real world.

А ЧТО ЖЕ ДАЛЬШЕ? — ПРОГНОЗЫ

It is difficult to estimate the timing of when the Metaverse will reach its maturity, become widespread and cease to be exotic. The practical application of this concept will depend on the development and implementation of the listed technologies and the speed of their development. Nevertheless, here are some general predictions:

Short term (next 2-3 years): In the short term, the Metaverse is expected to be primarily used for gaming and entertainment with a limited number of users. The main driver for this will be advances in virtual and augmented reality technologies.

Medium term (next 5-10 years): In the medium term, the Metaverse is expected to begin to be used for a wider range of applications such as education, work and social interaction. This will be driven by advances in 5G networks, cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

Long term (more than 10 years): The Metaverse is expected to reach its maturity and widespread distribution. It will be available to everyone and will be used for a wide variety of applications and purposes. This will be driven by further developments in technology and the development of standards and protocols that enable seamless interaction between different virtual worlds and applications.

It's important to note that these are general projections, and the actual timeline for how the Metaverse will become mature and widespread may vary. Additionally, there is still a significant amount of research and development to be done for the Metaverse to become a reality, and many hurdles still need to be overcome.

Возвращаясь к начальному вопросу — еще рано, уже в самый раз или уже поздно? — имеет смысл посмотреть на Метавселенную с точки концепции Gartner Technology Hype.

Gartner Technology Hype Cycle is a graphical representation of technology maturity and adoption that helps organizations understand the status and business potential of a particular technology. The Gartner Technology Hype Cycle is divided into five phases: Innovation Trigger, Expectation Peak, Disappointment Trough, Enlightenment Decline, and Productivity Plateau.

По данным Gartner, Метавселенная в настоящее время находится в фазе «Инновационного триггера», переходящего в фазу «Раздутых ожиданий». Этот этап характеризуется высоким уровнем ажиотажа и внимания средств массовой информации, а также отсутствием практического применения и четкого понимания потенциала технологии. Многие компании и стартапы инвестируют в проекты, связанные с Метавселенной, но большинство из них все еще находятся на ранних стадиях разработки, и трудно предсказать их потенциальное влияние и принятие. Note: you can get acquainted with the technological cycles in more detail here

The next stage, the bottom of disillusionment, is characterized by a decline in hype and media attention, and the realization that the technology is not as revolutionary or transformative as originally expected. Thereafter, the decline of enlightenment is characterized by a greater understanding of the capabilities and limitations of technology, as well as the emergence of practical applications. Finally, a productivity plateau is characterized by stable and widespread technology diffusion.

It's worth noting that the Hype Cycle is not a prediction of the future, but rather a representation of current market trends and perceptions. Therefore, it is quite possible that the Metaverse will not follow this path and will develop differently.

Но в любом случае, на поставленный вопрос, пожалуй, стоит ответить — еще рано. Но инвестировать стоит…. в технологии и области, которые необходимы для дальнейшего развития концепции Метавселенной.